Trading by the Light of the Moon | Forex Factory

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL)


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In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company.
Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound.
In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it!
Stock code: 5199.KL
Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199
Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/

Company Snapshot

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as:
· looking for oil,
· drawing it out of the ground, and
· selling it on global oil markets.
This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020).
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While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields.
Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices.
At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)

To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production.
In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below:
As defined by the SPE PRMS, Reserves are “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.)
Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:)
- A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria; - A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development; - Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and - Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated.
Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below:
- Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and) - Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes.
In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes:
- Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate; - Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and - High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded.
Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”.
However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation:
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Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022).
Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl.
In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources.
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The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl).
This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million).
However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus.
To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field.

North Sabah oil field
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Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field.
For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are:
· Average uptime
· Total oil sold
· Average realized oil price
· Average OPEX per bbl
With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields.
Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime.
As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross.
We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl.
Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl.
Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures:
· Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl

Anasuria oil field
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Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field:
· Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl
As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.

Valuation (Method 1)

Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data:
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Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x.
Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant:
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From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices.
Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).

Valuation (Method 2)

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another.
As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it.
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From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet).
Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit:
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Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price.
However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that.
Intangible Assets
I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet.
As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion).
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Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all?
To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs:
E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets.
E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.)
Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment.
On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following:
Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).)
So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate.
Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required.
So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following:
Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116))
Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation?
Fortunately, we find just that on page 185:
17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED)
(a Anasuria Cluster)
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.)
The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows:
(i Discount rate of 10%;)
(ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;)
(iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,)
(iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.)
Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount.
(b North Sabah)
The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements.
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year.
Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field.
How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively.
In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billion approximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves.
To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:

Our estimates Management estimates
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves RM 1.452 billion RM 1.468 billion

Financials

By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business.
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Income Statement
First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m.
Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32).
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This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m).
Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later.
Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis.
Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment.
Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense.
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Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity.
We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again.
Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations.
Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes.
Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020)
Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m.
Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes.
The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large.
We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m.
Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices.
Cash Flow Statement
There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern.
Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI.
Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).

Risks

There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are:
· Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time
· Fluctuation of exchange rates
· Customer concentration risk
· 2P Reserves being less than estimated
· Significant current and non-current liabilities
· Potential issuance of equity
Oil prices remaining subdued
Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing.
Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates
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The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36.
Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green).
Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing.
Customer Concentration Risk
With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished.
2P Reserves being less than estimated
2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’).
Significant non-current and current liabilities
The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern.
Potential issuance of equity
Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years.
Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out.
However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.

Opportunities

As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below:
· Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
· Inclusion of 2C Resources
· Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production.
The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward.
By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day).
Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day).
This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet.
Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day.
While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations.
Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates:
Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates
https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159
The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates.
The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day.
Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above.
2C Resources
Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates.
To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil.
https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a
This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil.
Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY20 FY21 (incl. 2C) Difference
Daily oil production (bbl/day) 8,626 14,400 +66%
Average oil price (USD/bbl) $68.57 $50 -27%
Average OPEX/bbl (USD) $16.64 $20 +20%
EBITDA (RM ‘m) 632 630 -
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20.
For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby.
Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented).
Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years.
When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.

Conclusion

Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
submitted by investorinvestor to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]

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  725. fourredditorsonecup
  726. unexpectedcannibalism
  727. airpods
  728. rimjob_steve
  729. flextapecantfixthat
  730. twentyonepilots
  731. DecreasinglyVerbose
  732. TheRealJoke
  733. UpvotedBecauseButt
  734. redditsings
  735. TwennyWunPilots
  736. iOSthemes
  737. subtleprequelmemes
  738. HarleyQuinn
  739. Niggawhat
  740. Shitty_Car_Mods
  741. subsithoughtifellfor
  742. Voltron
  743. epicmemes
  744. vancouver
  745. Warhammer40k
  746. PokemonXandY
  747. LooksLikeSlazo
  748. IamNumberFour
  749. swrpg
  750. MafiaCityMemes
  751. swtor
  752. RoyaleRecruit
  753. Vaping
  754. pan_media
  755. DestinyLore
  756. FortniteSucks
  757. fightporn
  758. themob
  759. u_GrizzyIy
  760. XXXTENTACION
  761. 4chan
  762. MusicForTeens
  763. tazman595
  764. karma
  765. school
  766. Cancersupportgroup
  767. cancer
  768. SeriousConversation
  769. PeopleAreFckinStupid
  770. JackSucksAtLife
  771. Why
  772. oddlyspecific
  773. oculus
  774. bookclapreviewclap
  775. FixMyPrint
  776. arduino
  777. EtikaRedditNetwork
  778. SmallWitDatHotFiya
  779. 465
  780. idklolihidsomething
  781. hmssss
  782. UsefulMemes
  783. calebfinn
  784. Animal
  785. randomactsofkindness
  786. shy
  787. TomHolland
  788. bulletjournal
  789. shittyfacebookmemes
  790. EmpireDidNothingWrong
  791. OculusQuest
  792. coincidence
  793. chairsunderwater
  794. DecaturHighschoolGA
  795. XXY
  796. Dyslexia
  797. uwutranslator
  798. ContestOfChampions
  799. UsernameChecksOut
  800. unexpectedtrivago
  801. wrongnumber
  802. venmo
  803. IllegalLifeProTips
  804. HitBoxPorn
  805. Shrek
  806. weirdnews
  807. specialed
  808. EndgameSpoilers
  809. specialeducation
  810. antivax
  811. AntiVaxxers
  812. u_purpleyellowpaint
  813. bi_irl
  814. sugarfreemua
  815. lanadelrey
  816. volleyball
  817. muacjdiscussion
  818. ThisButUnironically
  819. ShitLiberalsSay
  820. brokeabone
  821. discord_irl
  822. excitingdystopia
  823. BenBashiroLore
  824. VaushV
  825. ABoringDystopia
  826. FristOfAllHowDareYou
  827. hamsters
  828. SubredditSimMeta
  829. TropicalWeather
  830. Landlord
  831. AntifascistsofReddit
  832. hamstercare
  833. vexillologycirclejerk
  834. therewasnoattempt
  835. ennnnnnnnnnnnbbbbbby
  836. RealSolarSystem
  837. u_CondomCrusader69
  838. band
  839. FlexSealFanClub
  840. Armor
  841. MemeFormats
  842. Puberty
  843. conceptart
  844. CondomKingdom
  845. u_Some16yoLosr
  846. FireEmblemHeroes
  847. FondantLove
  848. LaCrescentMN
  849. u_PugMage101
  850. darkvideos
  851. u_Sadness92
  852. PERSoNA
  853. JacksFilms
  854. jschlatt
  855. castlevania
  856. stfuretard
  857. CloneWarsMemes
  858. DeepFried
  859. legostarwars
  860. u_DVproductions64
  861. KamikazeByWords
  862. ImGoingToHellForThis
  863. linuxmemes
  864. codes
  865. crypto
  866. cpp_questions
  867. Laptop
  868. debian
  869. Kalilinux
  870. PHP
  871. TOR
  872. Doomers
  873. learnpython
  874. RecRoom
  875. orbusvr
  876. VirtualDesktop
  877. bigscreen
  878. ProTubeVR
  879. VRchat
  880. OculusQuestModding
  881. Borderlands2
  882. DeathToBuzzfeed
  883. deadbabyjokes
  884. u_MCT1233
  885. kpop
  886. crystalclear
  887. GIDLE
  888. pokemongoyellow
  889. bidle
  890. unpopularkpopopinions
  891. HermitCraft
  892. ItHadToBeBrazil
  893. grian
  894. MumboJumboYouTube
  895. recycling
  896. usernamefamily
  897. BirdsArentReal
  898. u_Gay_Papa
  899. BSA
  900. u_ConsumeSyrup
  901. ModdedMinecraft
  902. ROBLOXmemes
  903. gangbeasts
  904. Discussion
  905. CrossCountry
  906. fuck
  907. FML
  908. TonightsBigLosers
  909. skeppy
  910. mcservers
  911. pussypassdenied
  912. backgrounds
  913. IsThereASubredditFor
  914. BulletHellMonday
  915. u_whyMYpeepeeGREEN
  916. marchingband
  917. TuberSimulator
  918. FosterTheCirclejerk
  919. GiftofGames
  920. deadmeatjames
  921. AshVsEvilDead
  922. GachaLifeCringe
  923. IntotheDarkHulu
  924. ChernobylMemes
  925. asl
  926. Hong_Kong
  927. vexillology
  928. imaginarymaps
  929. mountaindew
  930. SurrealApprovals
  931. Blessed_Images
  932. Metallica
  933. ainbow
  934. u_Mr-Damaged
  935. SmallYTChannel
  936. skype
  937. FamilyIssues
  938. FellowTeens
  939. MinecraftParodyMemes
  940. BloodyLegends
  941. DankMemes_Circlejerk
  942. cursedminecraftimages
  943. TeenagersUnrelatable
  944. reddeadfashion
  945. reddeadmemes
  946. itswooshwith2os
  947. phones
  948. Fishers
  949. Quizlet_Live_Raids
  950. CutePuppyPics
  951. u_Wakeless_place
  952. SeenElsewhere
  953. GreyStillPlays
  954. LazarBeam
  955. FUCKYOUINPARTICULAR
  956. stein_world
  957. perfectphotos
  958. PhoenixSC
  959. Crayfish
  960. MinecraftVsFortnite
  961. CallOfDutyWorldWarTwo
  962. hypixel
  963. videomemes
  964. KeanuReeves
  965. ubisoft
  966. jacksepticeye
  967. Filmora
  968. montreal
  969. ComradeSShow
  970. InsiderMemeTrading
  971. unnamedfanbase
  972. LoomianLegacyTrading
  973. AnimalCrossingNewLeaf
  974. AdoptMyVillager
  975. papermario
  976. Memeconomy
  977. TooCuteForPorn
  978. ben
  979. GTAV
  980. smplive
  981. galaxybuds
  982. AMCsAList
  983. TwitchClips
  984. Spellbreak
  985. QueerEye
  986. jesuschristouija
  987. u_randomflyingcars
  988. onebag
  989. networking
  990. Dappermemes
  991. CrazyIdeas
  992. hardware
  993. beagle
  994. BoomerTears
  995. keto
  996. european_dankmemes
  997. QuantumSubreddits
  998. TeenMomOGandTeenMom2
  999. WeightLossAdvice
  1000. RLFashionAdvice
  1001. MetalMemes
  1002. systemofadown
  1003. guitarcirclejerk
  1004. drums
  1005. Megadeth
  1006. weightlifting
  1007. gmod
  1008. avengedsevenfold
  1009. airsoftcirclejerk
  1010. paintball
  1011. arma
  1012. joinsquad
  1013. AOC
  1014. fakeobituary
  1015. fuckmanny
  1016. JustBeWhite
  1017. GODUS
  1018. fuckalinity
  1019. adventurerscodex
  1020. slavbot
  1021. Meme_Battles
  1022. u_Trollium2166
  1023. gtavcustoms
  1024. 350z
  1025. Hawaii
  1026. Scootering
  1027. skate3
  1028. bmx
  1029. arizona
  1030. Sunsets
  1031. projectcar
  1032. Mustang
  1033. snowboarding
  1034. Boxing
  1035. u_slyone05
  1036. gank
  1037. ForHonorWuLin
  1038. bruhfunny
  1039. ForHonorRants
  1040. ProjectJojo
  1041. ProGreenStarPlatinum
  1042. fanStands
  1043. nothingeverhappens
  1044. imveryedgy
  1045. stupidquestions
  1046. forhonorknights
  1047. UnexpectedForHonor
  1048. ShootingFishInABarrel
  1049. RubberSoulMains
  1050. JojoHFTF
  1051. UnexpectedJoJo
  1052. undetectedsabaton
  1053. Battlefield
  1054. MillenniumDawn
  1055. fightsticks
  1056. okuyasu_irl
  1057. Stepmania
  1058. WOOOOOOSHED
  1059. shigechi_appreciation
  1060. completelyrealtexts
  1061. SteamScams
  1062. Powerwolf
  1063. u_KindStrangerOnReddit
  1064. PvZHeroes
  1065. Fish
  1066. JuiceWRLD
  1067. Gatorade
  1068. SelfHate
  1069. UgandaKnuckles
  1070. depressed
  1071. walouija
  1072. WeirdQuites
  1073. askdoctors
  1074. u_White0000
  1075. TrollXChromosomes
  1076. NarutoBlazing
  1077. u_Datnotguy17
  1078. howtokeepanidiotbusy
  1079. AyyMD
  1080. Jreg
  1081. wheresMwaldo
  1082. Political_Tumor
  1083. Purdue
  1084. GamingDetails
  1085. Handwriting
  1086. CrossView
  1087. SharedBPM
  1088. test
  1089. Stonetossingjuice
  1090. PictureGame
  1091. explainabookplotbadly
  1092. DuwangGang
  1093. Meemagers
  1094. CallMeCarson
  1095. ToolJerk
  1096. cursedmemes
  1097. virtualbeggar
  1098. left4dead
  1099. bigbangedmemes
  1100. whatintarnation
  1101. comicbookcollecting
  1102. Trophies
  1103. u_lilsusnibba
  1104. subredditwithnorules
  1105. homestuck
  1106. lux
  1107. TeamfightTactics
  1108. Wukongmains
  1109. LeagueofFailures
  1110. LeagueOfMemes
  1111. ezrealmains
  1112. akalimains
  1113. yuumimains
  1114. YIMO
  1115. botlanetinder
  1116. supportlol
  1117. MordekaiserMains
  1118. YasuoMains
  1119. neekomains
  1120. ApheliousMains
  1121. LEMMiNO
  1122. space
  1123. wwiipics
  1124. u_alt_1236
  1125. FiftyFiftyDev
  1126. MercyClub
  1127. Normies
  1128. wooooshwith4os
  1129. DungeonsAndDragons
  1130. spongebob
  1131. FromTheDepths
  1132. SpaceflightSimulator
  1133. BeardedDragons
  1134. Spore
  1135. TeenAstronomy
  1136. HistoryPorn
  1137. u_OneStrikeyBoi
  1138. tylerthecreator
  1139. PictureRap
  1140. CryptoftheNecrodancer
  1141. Teens4Teens
  1142. freenagers
  1143. RamenRegime
  1144. SemenTeam
  1145. Pitland
  1146. insaneparents
  1147. 90DayFiance
  1148. Chinesetourists
  1149. interracialdating
  1150. PutAnEggOnIt
  1151. drawings
  1152. u_kayasphotographs
  1153. mildlycreepy
  1154. likeothergirls
  1155. kahootgames
  1156. PoliticalCompassMemes
  1157. mood
  1158. cfbsober
  1159. TIGoogled
  1160. fsusports
  1161. rolltide
  1162. NewYorkMets
  1163. HuntsvilleAlabama
  1164. nfl
  1165. minnesotavikings
  1166. KarmaCourt
  1167. CFBOffTopic
  1168. Teenageers
  1169. 3BeansAndABeerCap
  1170. popheadscirclejerk
  1171. PuppySmiles
  1172. Komi_san
  1173. freebies
  1174. zerowondering
  1175. 177013
  1176. untrustworthypoptarts
  1177. subredditcancer
  1178. SubwayHentai
  1179. TsundereSharks
  1180. bee_irl
  1181. banned
  1182. LGBTOpenModmail
  1183. u_Rulx8
  1184. The_Dedede
  1185. NintendoWaifus
  1186. pchelp
  1187. SweetHomeAlabama
  1188. SmallYoutubers
  1189. Advertise
  1190. Suddenlybabyimyours
  1191. Lolitary
  1192. PornoMemes
  1193. clevercomebacks
  1194. SpaceMemes
  1195. TankPorn
  1196. AbandonedPorn
  1197. Hbonds
  1198. Jewdank
  1199. LiveLikeLarry
  1200. birdswitharms
  1201. SchoolSystemBroke
  1202. popping
  1203. okboomerretard
  1204. plants
  1205. PhonesAreBad
  1206. SavageGarden
  1207. airplaneears
  1208. shutthefuckup
  1209. mermaids
  1210. OriginalCharacters
  1211. tuckedinkitties
  1212. RoastMyCat
  1213. curledfeetsies
  1214. Hellenism
  1215. yandere_simulator
  1216. catsareliquid
  1217. trichotillomania
  1218. lazarbeamsubmissions
  1219. dark_humor
  1220. fucksauerkraut
  1221. TheBeatles
  1222. produce
  1223. French
  1224. LilPeep
  1225. GitCommitDie
  1226. u_Brisingr_105
  1227. MarioMaker
  1228. gamingsuggestions
  1229. animation
  1230. FortniteCreative
  1231. ShrineOfFishstick
  1232. FortNiteMobile
  1233. FortniteSwitch
  1234. mariokart
  1235. u_Rodolfo20
  1236. jordancambridge
  1237. emu
  1238. beermoney
  1239. badminton
  1240. vlone
  1241. TimHortons
  1242. Repsneakers
  1243. TakashiMurakami
  1244. stamps
  1245. yeezys
  1246. DesignerReps
  1247. Rabbits
  1248. DesignMyRoom
  1249. LegitCheck
  1250. Hypebeasts
  1251. Bape
  1252. bapeheads
  1253. kaws
  1254. painting
  1255. vintage
  1256. insects
  1257. fossilid
  1258. Crystals
  1259. u_HanzAAli
  1260. PixelPeople
  1261. lifeisnotjust
  1262. RedditTrollss
  1263. notsureifgoodadvice
  1264. speedrun
  1265. gtavmodding
  1266. JJBA
  1267. whoooosh
  1268. Conrandom
  1269. Birbs
  1270. u_trash5652
  1271. BattleJackets
  1272. guitarlessons
  1273. virginvschad
  1274. Ghostbc
  1275. oldinternet
  1276. Moomins
  1277. Shuffles_Deck
  1278. Vent
  1279. Sims4
  1280. ShittyAdverts
  1281. saudiarabia
  1282. stopsmoking
  1283. ProRevenge
  1284. yaris
  1285. carporn
  1286. u_ThePinkPanda205
  1287. MadeOfStyrofoam
  1288. 5sos
  1289. GAAB350
  1290. formuladank
  1291. xqcow
  1292. whatsthisworth
  1293. GenZ
  1294. danduscirclejerk
  1295. andyterracianofanclub
  1296. radicalcentrism
  1297. killthosewhodisagree
  1298. onlinemischief
  1299. aromantic
  1300. u_TheAceOfToasters
  1301. javahelp
  1302. TheArcana
  1303. AquaticAsFuck
  1304. JohnMulaney
  1305. Assistance
  1306. doodles
  1307. sadcats
  1308. April11Gang
  1309. tomodachilife
  1310. Chonkers
  1311. Multicopter
  1312. ElectricSkateboarding
  1313. subaru
  1314. radiocontrol
  1315. Battlecars
  1316. CafeRacers
  1317. Jeep
  1318. AwesomeCarMods
  1319. rccars
  1320. whatsthissnake
  1321. CalamariRaceTeam
  1322. HotWheels
  1323. outrun
  1324. FPVvideos
  1325. PraiseTheCameraMan
  1326. saladsmiles
  1327. MobileGaming
  1328. techhelp
  1329. Competitiveoverwatch
  1330. Boblin
  1331. PlayINGRust
  1332. WarframeRunway
  1333. u_haggartt
  1334. earthbound
  1335. VizzedGames
  1336. OldReposts
  1337. misheard
  1338. area51
  1339. sharktank
  1340. awesome
  1341. u_PragatiBuffett
  1342. mediawiki
  1343. robertdowneyjr
  1344. JoJoMemes
  1345. u_Gameman740
  1346. ExpandDong
  1347. KarmaSacrifice
  1348. Minecraftbuilds
  1349. Foodlottery
  1350. MisfitShitposts
  1351. JellesMarbleRuns
  1352. Marblelympics
  1353. u_Donghoon
  1354. DhruvTheKid
  1355. RushWars
  1356. RicoGang
  1357. The4KMegaBox
  1358. shittybrawlstars
  1359. SmashLand
  1360. Cosmic_Clash
  1361. barleygang
  1362. DrMarioWorld
  1363. Archero
  1364. golfblitz
  1365. TickGang
  1366. NewSkaters
  1367. TheLetterH
  1368. Crushes
  1369. KarmaRoulette
  1370. u_Manasveer
  1371. UnexpectedThanos
  1372. depression_memes
  1373. u_Banapple101
  1374. drphil
  1375. ShittyPhotoshop
  1376. ft86
  1377. iilluminaughtii
  1378. showerthoughs
  1379. TheBrotherhoodofBros
  1380. MyBloodyValentine
  1381. SamandTolki
  1382. radiohead
  1383. radioheadcirclejerk
  1384. rantgrumps
  1385. googletranslate
  1386. ConspiracyGrumps
  1387. shoegaze
  1388. MichaelJackson
  1389. ClubPenguin
  1390. Toontown
  1391. rumney_marsh_academy
  1392. saplings
  1393. Pomade
  1394. playboicarti
  1395. Adorable_Animals
  1396. OverwatchUniversity
  1397. u_IOPasGhoulTrooper
  1398. CitadelOfSkins
  1399. heathernotpleased
  1400. comingout
  1401. ShitFortNiteBRSays
  1402. fortniteparentsclub
  1403. Cello
  1404. Golfwang
  1405. EveryoneIsAMod
  1406. LightModePatrol
  1407. JadenSmith
  1408. SuddenlyHitler
  1409. FilthyFrank
  1410. VeronaNJ
  1411. evilbuildings
  1412. cursedvideos
  1413. danktintinmemes
  1414. AwardSpeechEdits
  1415. AgainstHateSubreddits
  1416. deepweb
  1417. TeenagersTalkPolitics
  1418. shortcels
  1419. CURRENCY
  1420. WarriorCats
  1421. thedawnpatrol
  1422. upvote
  1423. theydidthemonstermath
  1424. u_ii_karmakun_ii
  1425. HumanTippyTaps
  1426. SamePicOfSteveHarvey
  1427. onionhate
  1428. redbubble
  1429. Tennessee
  1430. singapore
  1431. NuclearRevenge
  1432. JUSTNOMIL
  1433. jesuschristreddit
  1434. FlashTV
  1435. LegendsOfTomorrow
  1436. westworld
  1437. boringdystopia
  1438. dankjewishmemes
  1439. crazystories
  1440. calculators
  1441. LatinoPeopleTwitter
  1442. Dachshund
  1443. AdrenalinePorn
  1444. Dance
  1445. u_Santolmo
  1446. hardwaregore
  1447. dankgentina
  1448. fake90skids
  1449. reactionpics
  1450. ImagesYouCanHear
  1451. tf2shitposterclub
  1452. Nightmares
  1453. themonkeysotherpaw
  1454. transpositive
  1455. FifaCareers
  1456. PremierLeague
  1457. spiders
  1458. downvotesreally
  1459. coldshowers
  1460. puppy101
  1461. chanceme
  1462. trackandfield
  1463. architecture
  1464. orlando
  1465. ACT
  1466. YeetingKids
  1467. ParentsAreFuckingDumb
  1468. peopleofwalmart
  1469. donaldtrump
  1470. aethism
  1471. Relatable_RC
  1472. NewVegasMemes
  1473. CursedMinecraft
  1474. Area51memes
  1475. admincraft
  1476. fnv
  1477. humblebundles
  1478. blackmagicdesign
  1479. Crouton
  1480. promotereddit
  1481. itplaysit
  1482. youtubecomments
  1483. Ebay
  1484. gamecollecting
  1485. smashmemes
  1486. Mordhau
  1487. namenerds
  1488. greatpyrenees
  1489. sexyoffbrands
  1490. bottlephilia
  1491. u_limeylucio
  1492. sodapoppin
  1493. feminazi
  1494. yiffinhell
  1495. gravityfallsmemes
  1496. rmeme
  1497. u_I_am_Inevitable_Boi
  1498. awardbrag
  1499. redstone
  1500. Lightmodevsdark
  1501. PunPatrol
  1502. CrazyHand
  1503. e46
  1504. EngineBuilding
  1505. E46M3
  1506. Cartalk
  1507. KarmaConspiracy
  1508. MobileWallpaper
  1509. firstworldanarchists
  1510. Tabs
  1511. apolloapp
  1512. futurama
  1513. puzzles
  1514. SundaraKarma
  1515. Dreamers
  1516. programminghelp
  1517. firebrigade
  1518. drumcorpscirclejerk
  1519. fonts
  1520. OverwatchLeague
  1521. ChurchofFroppy
  1522. webhosting
  1523. Wordpress
  1524. PlantsVSZombies
  1525. StreetOutlaws
  1526. lgv30
  1527. Parents
  1528. MarioMaker2
  1529. TheWeeknd
  1530. u_Mind_The_PePe
  1531. DDLCMods
  1532. parrots
  1533. donthelpjustfilm
  1534. AccidentalRacism
  1535. u_Jimcuchim
  1536. Teachers
  1537. Amberlynn
  1538. TaylorSwift
  1539. UnlockedRedditAds
  1540. GTBAE
  1541. TouchThaFishy
  1542. That70sRetard
  1543. Indiana
  1544. ARK
  1545. shitpostbound
  1546. Philippines
  1547. DoctorBright
  1548. goodboys
  1549. blop
  1550. ThatsWhatSheSaid
  1551. watch_dogs
  1552. unexpectedoffice
  1553. birthofasub
  1554. unexpectedskyrim
  1555. Peopleoftwitch
  1556. ModSupport
  1557. CoolPetNames
  1558. amazonreviews
  1559. TwoRedditorsOneCup
  1560. CameHereToSayThis
  1561. WOSH
  1562. smartwatch
  1563. Reddit69420
  1564. u_Its-Ya-Boi-Satan
  1565. Boomer
  1566. InstaPoliceHere
  1567. FanStorytime
  1568. stories
  1569. bullying
  1570. MachineLearning
  1571. redsox
  1572. PrettyGirls
  1573. ChickenRunsAtMidnight
  1574. LimeOfTheCentury
  1575. SnapLenses
  1576. IRLEasterEggs
  1577. garfield
  1578. OkBubbyRetard
  1579. Ascendedfaketexts
  1580. matt
  1581. Patriots
  1582. nonutnovember
  1583. u_u-u_u-u_u
  1584. HeadphoneAdvice
  1585. SequelMemes
  1586. u_2006pow
  1587. YeetlordYT
  1588. CarlTheHedgehog
  1589. tall
  1590. aftergifted
  1591. EUR_irl
  1592. teenmartialarts
  1593. FostTalicska
  1594. u_Hm_Moonlight
  1595. MildlyVandalised
  1596. PhantomForces
  1597. OfficialSlazo
  1598. AJR
  1599. pokemongotrades
  1600. FreePlatinum
  1601. SnowTheGame
  1602. ggggg
  1603. GayTeensGoneMild
  1604. ruralporn
  1605. CityPorn
  1606. Surface
  1607. flightsim
  1608. AndroidWear
  1609. u_GamerWick
  1610. Myles_is_lonely
  1611. u_lesqie
  1612. UnexpectedHamilton
  1613. ComedySeasoning
  1614. AmateurPhotography
  1615. oldpeoplefacebook
  1616. Ticos
  1617. LemonySnicket
  1618. accidentalswastica
  1619. VACCINES
  1620. nealstephenson
  1621. sexualhealth
  1622. Forgotten_Realms
  1623. makeaband
  1624. AskLosAngeles
  1625. musicians
  1626. Guiltygear
  1627. MyHeroAcademiaRPG
  1628. AdventurersLeague
  1629. sallyface
  1630. TikTokCringe
  1631. darkmemes
  1632. EntitledBitch
  1633. Trufemcels
  1634. sad
  1635. PanPorn
  1636. BeautyBoxes
  1637. Ipsy
  1638. u_cottonorwool
  1639. pcmusic
  1640. intermittentfasting
  1641. angry
  1642. socialanxiety
  1643. u_Jumpspider74
  1644. cowboys
  1645. Mavericks
  1646. dolphinconspiracy
  1647. rule34
  1648. ImaginaryHorrors
  1649. DarkDeception
  1650. fuckea
  1651. u_pupperoni-421
  1652. coloringcorruptions
  1653. fbla
  1654. Amd
  1655. ChivalryGame
  1656. DrDisrespectLive
  1657. intel
  1658. esports
  1659. G502MasterRace
  1660. drumcorps
  1661. HeartHorny
  1662. u_crusty_bread_crust
  1663. holesome
  1664. oddlypacific
  1665. maths
  1666. demons
  1667. Physics
  1668. MusicianTeens
  1669. teenagerswithoutrules
  1670. DontPutItInYourAss
  1671. vro
  1672. traadustCrusaders
  1673. yugioh
  1674. BleachBraveSouls
  1675. okayfacebookmemes
  1676. realdonald_forreal
  1677. berserklejerk
  1678. Berserk
  1679. mangarockapp
  1680. MotorcyclePorn
  1681. ExNoContact
  1682. forza
  1683. Thunder
  1684. nbacirclejerk
  1685. ShitMomGroupsSay
  1686. strangehabits
  1687. madladcrusaders
  1688. u_ThatBoi1994
  1689. RedDeadOnline
  1690. u_WitnessMe015
  1691. communism
  1692. AgeplayPenPals
  1693. Poem_for_your_sprog
  1694. Polytopia
  1695. KingdomsandCastles
  1696. u_tarka_d0_sera
  1697. catfaceplant
  1698. AskQuija
  1699. educationalgifs
  1700. Rubiks_Cubes
  1701. u_WCon69
  1702. PoliticalMemes
  1703. Corridor
  1704. postprocessing
  1705. askspain
  1706. Svenska
  1707. buffy
  1708. newjersey
  1709. succulents
  1710. learnspanish
  1711. kimbra
  1712. blackmirror
  1713. john
  1714. asklaw
  1715. CardiB
  1716. ForeverAloneDating
  1717. BruceCampbell
  1718. deadrising
  1719. police
  1720. thebeachboys
  1721. LeavingNeverlandLies
  1722. LeavingNeverlandHBO
  1723. LeavingNeverland
  1724. ForeverAlone
  1725. DownRightAwesome
  1726. ThanosMC
  1727. BigBirdCult
  1728. Fantaisgood
  1729. letsbone
  1730. SuddenlyAnimalAbuse
  1731. G59
  1732. Bexey
  1733. Tupac
  1734. bangladesh
  1735. bodybuilding
  1736. GymMemes
  1737. CowbellyTV
  1738. u_canineswine
  1739. TeenStyle
  1740. short
  1741. BossfightUniverse
  1742. WallpaperRequests
  1743. ibxtoycat
  1744. toycat
  1745. RareEmojis
  1746. expectedSpaceBalls
  1747. shittymcsuggestions
  1748. PokemonGOMemes
  1749. grandayy
  1750. grandpajoehate
  1751. deadmeatmemes
  1752. FanTheories
  1753. CrusadeMemes
  1754. redneckelonmusk
  1755. canconfirmimanaussie
  1756. unexpectedtfs
  1757. SubsIWishWereReal
  1758. iFunny
  1759. wallpapers
  1760. rasdash
  1761. opensource
  1762. raspberry_pi
  1763. grandrapids
  1764. thegrandtour
  1765. DeepFriedLinuxMemes
  1766. Michigan
  1767. Spongebuntu
  1768. Health
  1769. stylish
  1770. supercars
  1771. Autos
  1772. StuffOnCats
  1773. 2healthbars
  1774. mazda
  1775. amishadowbanned
  1776. toronto
  1777. canada
  1778. freevbucks
  1779. AntiAntiAntiAntiJokes
  1780. antiantiantijokes
  1781. Birthdaytwins
  1782. mildyinteresting
  1783. yesyesyesyesyesnoyes
  1784. tifurb
  1785. RoastMyHistory
  1786. badpuns
  1787. Rainforest
  1788. u_EnderCreep72
  1789. TheOutsiders
  1790. JohnWick
  1791. starbase
  1792. GTA
  1793. bully
  1794. MMA
  1795. karate
  1796. india
  1797. StreetFights
  1798. NoglaOfficial
  1799. burgers
  1800. PeterExplainsTheJoke
  1801. amateur_boxing
  1802. Jasiah
  1803. travisscott
  1804. FortnitePhotography
  1805. LilNasX
  1806. FortniteLeaks
  1807. CallMeKevin
  1808. Idubbbz
  1809. memesofthedank
  1810. u_nibbapusspuss69
  1811. FloridaMemes
  1812. Avengers
  1813. cursedjojo
  1814. Csgohacks
  1815. u_insane_playzYT
  1816. SimplyFortnite
  1817. TeachersRFuckingDum
  1818. django
  1819. amipregnant
  1820. IncelTeens
  1821. fuck_r_teenagers
  1822. wherestheredcircle
  1823. MURICA
  1824. SrGrafo
  1825. dev_ed
  1826. TheFutureIsWomen
  1827. TheFutureIsWoman
  1828. TheFutureIsMale
  1829. wewantpornofthis
  1830. BothSidesPolitics
  1831. iamverybedass
  1832. uneducatedopinions
  1833. webdev
  1834. perfectlycutspurts
  1835. u_msterchief82
  1836. hemitite
  1837. ArakiForgot
  1838. SubtoPewDiePieMC
  1839. BirdsForScale
  1840. aLOTofKARMAindays
  1841. honeygetmygun
  1842. thirdsub
  1843. cursed_posts
  1844. MyHeroAcademia
  1845. Meme_colesium
  1846. timetravel
  1847. WordAvalanches
  1848. gravityfalls
  1849. u_Niggword69
  1850. ConfusedBoners
  1851. DonutOperator
  1852. u_DoxxingAngels
  1853. Jazz
  1854. percussion
  1855. WeirdSheep
  1856. BisexualTeens
  1857. Adulting
  1858. MensLib
  1859. NewDM
  1860. Paladins
  1861. CountOnceADay
  1862. TheOnionUnlimited
  1863. ComedyFlogging
  1864. FuckNestle
  1865. 8BitGang
  1866. FrankGang
  1867. ColtGang
  1868. yescompanionimbecil
  1869. ChurchOfMineta
  1870. YouFellForItFool
  1871. Super_Cube_Cavern
  1872. dynamikegang
  1873. ZoeIsYourHomie
  1874. u_PlusTrash7
  1875. ZaryaMains
  1876. SleepingSoulmates
  1877. JunkRatMains
  1878. Awww
  1879. RoadhogMains
  1880. fo76
  1881. MK11PremiumStore
  1882. MKMemes
  1883. KombatFashion
  1884. aliens
  1885. sixthworldproblems
  1886. Switch
  1887. thebindingofisaac
  1888. BattlefieldCosmetics
  1889. ww2
  1890. LaCasaDePapel
  1891. PSNFriends
  1892. edgydarkdankmemes
  1893. AssassinsCreedOdyssey
  1894. u_Francischelo
  1895. ww2memes
  1896. DrunkDrunkenPorn
  1897. submechanophobia
  1898. athiesm
  1899. awakened
  1900. Pics_of_your_uncle
  1901. nikerunclub
  1902. firstimpression
  1903. Kikpals
  1904. Ultraboost
  1905. Toyota
  1906. UrbanHell
  1907. avfc
  1908. 6thForm
  1909. BassGuitar
  1910. greenday
  1911. chemistry
  1912. TokyoGhoul
  1913. u_Hate_-_millenials
  1914. ChippyGaming
  1915. USNSCC
  1916. unsettling
  1917. navy
  1918. mkxmobile
  1919. notcrappydesign
  1920. u_rd741904
  1921. neverendinggifs
  1922. beta
  1923. StrangerThingsMemes
  1924. u_Mr_Wolf7
  1925. ThatsInsane
  1926. u_Ens-Causa-Sui
  1927. u_SnakesAndTanksOhMy
  1928. aquaponics
  1929. glossier
  1930. ImagineDragonsTeens
  1931. heyrolemodel
  1932. omarapollo
  1933. LANY
  1934. WhereInTheDisneyWorld
  1935. funnystories
  1936. SmallDeliMeats
  1937. codyko
  1938. watercooling
  1939. nspire
  1940. GBA4iOS
  1941. xayahmains
  1942. ElectricalEngineering
  1943. walkingwarrobots
  1944. FL_Studio
  1945. graphic_design
submitted by CaesarNaples2 to copypastapublishin [link] [comments]

I hate living in Israel

I moved to Israel six years ago.
How that happened:
I am Jewish (you probably guessed) and bought into the idea that it is our ancestral homeland.
After being taken on one of those free two weeks tours, I became captivated by the country and planned to move there. It took a few years of planning for that wish to come to fruition.
To be honest, I still believe in Jewish people's right to be here and that a Jewish country is the only natural environment for a Jew (particularly an observant one) to live in. I just happen not to like the one country that fits that criteria very much, or many of its citizens - and that also happens to be the country I live in!
I also believe that is Israel's responsibility to help realize a just and lasting solution to the Palestinian "problem". In my view, that is not reconcilable with endlessly occupying the land they live on and subjecting them to military law. But that aside...
The Israel I visited as a tourist and the Israel I live in as a citizen are like two completely countries. So much so that if I were a conspiracy theorist (I am not!), I would practically believe the whole thing was an illusion.

Manners (Or Lack Thereof)

For whatever reason, manners are virtually absent here.
The stereotypes are 100% true.
Maybe I missed that earlier? I'm not sure, because some people with parents who were born here have told me that people have become ruder and more aggressive over the years. I tend to believe it.
You buy stuff in the market and shopkeepers just glare at you and slam your change on the counter without even bothering to say "thank you".
I feel like if someone tried that in NYC they might be asking for a fight!
Not a single person in my building knows how to close their door. My table jars every few minutes from the vibration of people slamming their doors.
People play music at all hours. And blare private conversations over their phone's loudspeakers because they can't be bothered bringing the handset to their ears. This varies a little by city (Tel Aviv is slightly more refined), but in general the culture is incredibly inconsiderate. Shouting is very commonplace (of course, it's just a "friendly argument"), honking on the roads is incessant, and people are too inpatient and inconsiderate to be able to form a queue. People will push grandmothers out of the way to get on a bus sooner. If it weren't sad, it would be funny.
Social cohesion is sorely lacking, IMO, as evidenced by the massive amount of splinter and minority parties that form before every election.
Everybody is in a tribe or, if not, an "enemy" (read: an Arab).
The sad and blunt truth is that it's a crude, racist society that even has a problem with some of its own (see: treatment of Ethiopian Jews).
(BTW, this is something that gets discussed a lot among Jews that voluntarily move here. People come up with all manner of BS excuses to justify it. "It's directness." No, it's atrocious manners. "There are no words for basic courtesies in Hebrew". Yes, there are - open a dictionary! "It's Middle Eastern". Travel to Egypt and Jordan. People have manners there. Unfortunately, most people that have negative things to say about the country get silenced by the aggressive "nothing can be wrong here" brigade.)

Prices

Prices are insanely high and, as far as I can tell, the situation is only getting worse.
Generally, those prices are for crappy products imported from China and heavily marked up. Or the local stuff sold by a company that is part of an oligopoly and would never survive in a free market environment. Customer service is almost non-existent - or at least, has the local twist which is "the customer is always wrong". And of course - those wonderful overpriced products and services are sold to you by often rude ungrateful people.
Working here also flat out sucks, IMO.
The world has bought into the myth that Israel is a land of amazing startups where everybody is swimming in opportunity.
The reality is that more than 90% of the economy is employed in protectionist dysfunctional companies and Israel has one of the lowest per-capita productivity rates in the OECD (feel free to check the numbers - it's late at night here and I'm trying not to lose the 'flow' of this). It's capitalism with all the benefits taken out. The socialist/kibbutznik backbone that formed the society is dead. Income inequality, as measured by the Geni coefficient, is among the highest in the world.
If you're not a Java developer or help run one of the ports (don't ask - monopoly!) you can expect to be paid a salary roughly a third lower than the West - while living in one of the most expensive countries in the world. A good chunk of immigrants here are employed in scam industries, including (but not limited to) binary, forex, and other international "scams." They attempted to regulate these, but due to corruption and cronyism, largely failed. Just as they attempted to pass a fair rental law which had about the same result.
To add insult to injury ****, Israelis are C-H-E-A-P***\* in my opinion (given the pejorative Jewish-money stereotypes, I realize that this is something that would be problematic/difficult for a non-Jew to assert).
You see this in the workplace. You're expected to work like a slave while your miserly employer tries his best haggling skills to pay you as little as possible. Unsurprisingly, Israelis founded Fiverr and have proven very eager exponents of the offshoring model, where they can find people willing to work for even less than olim hadashim (Jewish immigrants). Israelis love bargaining and will treat anything that involves money as a game whereby they attempt to keep as much of it as possible.
In terms of conditions - the minimum number of vacation days are 12 while the working week is 45 hours. Again, for pretty miserable salaries. Public holidays, which are relatively few, do not roll over if they fall out on a weekend. In general, a cultural of professionalism is sorely lacking. My strongly held opinion is that the best have already left.
Also: a bunch of Israelis sponge off their families until well over their forties. The country is also awash with Jewish immigrants who mysteriously seem to survive despite never having held a job in their life. The explanation? Their familiar are sponsoring them.

Religious Coercion / Weekends

Because of the Jewish Sabbath (during which public transport does not run; shops start closing half-way through Friday), you never even really feel like you've had a proper weekend.
Property is the worst of all. Astronomically expensive.
Taxes on new cars are almost 100% so almost everybody drives beat-up second hand ones, if they have one at all (it's considered a luxury). And the standards of housing - from anybody comparing it to the West - is relatively abysmal. There's a great Facebook page with some photos of the worst rentals on the market. Even if you don't read Hebrew, just take a look at some of the photos.
The first generations that came here have done a nice job at monopolizing large segments of the market and housing stock so are well taken care of.
For virtually anybody else, their future is renting (from rude slumlords!)
Hotel prices are also outrageous, and there's the added insult of having to pay more for rooms if you're from the country. People here literally fly to Europe because it's cheaper than staycationing in this ripoff!
Want to console yourself about that with a nice mango? Even fruit here has become expensive recently. The only thing that's cheaper here than the West is healthcare and public transport. It's a great country to be on the breadline in. To thrive financially? Not so much.

Politics

The public endlessly votes for a lying, corrupt prime minister who has just let the parliament dissolve in his pathetic bid to avoid fraud charges.
The country is apparently rapidly descending into a religious dictatorship and nobody seems to care - yet it still has the nerve to call itself "the only democracy in the Middle East."
The school system is failing and a segment of the population which doesn't work or paid taxes (the ultra-Orthodox) have somehow wound up in the position where they pull all the political strings.
People, for a reason I can never understand, generally seem to simply accept the status quo.
They are content with simply surviving and not being obliterated by Iran/Hamas/Hizbullah. As someone that didn't grow up in that security environment, this seems baffling to me. I feel like grabbing hold of one of Netanyahu's voters and asking him/her "That's truly all you aspire towards?"
The most that happens is some journalist (automatically branded a "leftist" by the right-wing majority) writes some article in the Opinion section of Ha'aretz. The last time people got out on the street to protest in significant numbers was years ago (remember the cottage cheese protests?). In Greece, the riot police get called out to put down mass protests. Here, people are happy to simply survive (sort of).
Why does the average person here vote for Netanyahu?
You know, because things are so great here and some third-world tycoon has been to visit (this is advertised as "unprecedented diplomatic achievements.").
Oh, and the economy has "never been stronger" (even though the country also has an enormous poverty problem and many people are struggling to simply get by).
I have a bad habit of checking Google News every few hours.
Reading those articles just makes me angry.
But it's really nothing more than a reflection of how people are on the street.
Rude. Aggressive. Argumentative. Demanding. Always in the fricking right. Also locals here literally never apologize for anything (that would be considered too "weak" to fit in with the local culture).
There's also this weird fetish with strength and the military here that I find disturbing. You see it in slang a lot (an "explosion" also means a good thing, like "that party was an explosion" is an idiom for "that party was a great time").
Being human (such as letting somebody cut ahead of you in line at the supermarket because they only have a couple of items) is branded as "weakness" and frowned upon. As is having manners. To be honest, I believe that the culture here is best described as "sick".
Israel has made me feel like an old man, even though I'm far from that.
All I want, at this point, is a basic quality of life.
Things like a non-minuscule apartment in which to live. Decent professional opportunities that don't involve working for some (usually shady) startup simply trying to use my English to get some investor to pump money into them so they can offshore everything to the US. The possibility of a week's vacation in somewhere that isn't a dingy ripoff staffed by rude people! And to hear somebody say "thank you, have a nice day" when I buy an apple from them!
I travel abroad a couple of times a year and usually feel like I've stepped into another planet. It's like somebody is dispersing a fine mist of Valium from the air. Hard to put my finger on it but people just seem kind of sedate and relaxed!
People are less direct (I'll admit, I actually like the directness here!), but know basic manners, everything isn't overpriced, and people enjoy a real weekend! You can order stuff from Amazon and it actually arrives on time! Somehow, there's no shouting! People know how to actually form a line! You don't have to stand up for yourself simply to not be pushed over!
I'm planning my escape (among other things), but I have to hold this in every day until I get out. I don't feel comfortable telling this to my friends (I rebrand it as "I'm finding it difficult here" without going into details) and I can't exactly broadcast my feelings to the average person on the street.
The truth is that I'm not as miserable as I sound.
I've been doing some self-work recently just to cope with living here. Stress and all that.
My mindset has taken a shift to the positive. And I'm really grateful by how much it has helped.
But it doesn't make living here any less distasteful and actually made me much more inclined to write this here (why wouldn't I tell the world like it is - at least as I see it?).
BTW, I'm a real Reddit user but, because I'm paranoid about privacy, I set up a new account just to write this post.
So thank you, Reddit, for giving me the chance to put this into writing!
If you're also living, or have lived here, feel free to let me know your thoughts in the comments.
And if you haven't and are considering doing so, please take everything you have read and heard about the country with a pinch (actually, make that the entire carton-full) of salt!

Some Links / Further Reading:

submitted by unhappyoleh to offmychest [link] [comments]

Newbie Live UK trader with questions about trading, tax, and spread betting

hey forex bros, I'm a newbie UK trader with questions regarding tax, spread betting and trading.
A little bit about my situation; I've had a live acc for about 2 months now, demo traded close to a year and a half. Live so far is going almost too good to be true! which is always nice but I'm treading lightly cos based on my stats, I'm bouned overdue some trades not going my way.
Anyways, The reason I'm posting is because i always assumed traders don't get TAX'd in the UK. I didn't realize it only applies to spread betting until a couple days ago.
I trade with Oanda, after learning this I've opened a spread betting acc with them and the UI and method of placing a trade/bet seems almost identical BUT it cant be right?
my questions; - is there more of a risk to spread betting than normal trading? if so what is it? - would say a massive account closing SL slip be dealt with the same in spread betting as it would normal trading? - if trading is safer, would it be better to go back to trading and pay tax? - if you're a UK citizen too, what do you do and why?
thanks for your time
submitted by r3flex_MMA to Forex [link] [comments]

(Reboot) ELI5 on how China fucked their own economy, chapter 6

OK Yesterday's HCFTHE was a big let down. I read on the next few chapters and I feel like there's no more point in translating anymore because the author's coherence is slipping.
This is a reboot. From here on, it's all cruise speed. No translating, it's all me!
(Translated) Chapter 1
(Translated) Chapter 2
(Translated) Chapter 3
(Translated) Chapter 4
(Translated) Chapter 5
Chapter 6: RMB internationalization, a dream? a future?
RMB internationalization. You've heard of RMB. We all have, the legend, the curses. Some foolishness about a currency that never devalues. A closed currency. Buried beneath an opaque monetary policy... a bald, aging portrait of Mao luring investors to their dreams. An illusion that you can begin again, change your fortunes. Issuing them, though, that's not the hard part. It's internationalization.
(Sorry been playing A LOT of fallout. Production is down 50% because half my office are gone and the other half...are playing with me. Seriously, fuck Chinese New year.)
Except for the face culture, RMB internationalization is pretty much a national goal of China. To have their currency achieve global status will make it a rival currency for the USDollar, much like the Euros...except it's Asian. An Asian euro is crucial for China to establish its asiaphere influence zone. Having China enter IMF's basket of currencies is just a first step.
Before we talk about "how", let's talk "why". Why is it important for RMB to go global. For this we will need a deep understanding of world economics, but to dumb it down to ELI5 levels, we'll simplify it down as following:
World domination.
Wow wow wow holy fuck upads what the fuck!? This escalated quickly!
Sorry, but this is a fact. The British Pound, once served as the world's premier reserve currency, shaped the British Empire where the sun never. In fact, UK still hold [14 overseas territories[(https://archive.org/stream/09LONDON1039/09LONDON1039_djvu.txt), and the sun never sets on all fourteen British territories at once. Glory to the queen!
OK let's double time, here's a short list of goals that RMB internationalization can help achieve:
  1. Debt. Chinese companies have a lot of debt in USD. As of right now China don't want RMB to devalue because it would make debts harder to pay.
  2. Getting rid of forex risk. Self explained.
  3. Exports. With all China's debts in RMB there will be no consequence in devaluing the RMB. Will you pay $400 for a Huawei smartphone? No? How about $100? Cheaper price, it helps boosts sales volume. A lot.
  4. Getting rid of language barrier. If you look up most common language on harmony it lists Chinese with the most number of speaker s in the world, followed by Spanish, then English. Guess what language is most common in the business world? English. Guess what language does world reserve currency countries speak? English.
  5. Getting rid of autistic monkeys ESL teachers. Having RMB as a global currency will help China demand their business partners to start speaking Chinese, giving China home field advantage. The reason ESL teachers are needed is because China needs to do business in English. Seriously why the fuck do I need to learn English if I'm not gonna do business?
  6. Better politics. With foreign languages kicked out of their curriculum, the Chinese population can spend more time learning useful things, such as how to worship the communist party Seriously, learning how to think politically is a mandatory subject in high school curriculum, as well as gaokao.
  7. Better economics.
Now on the spot light. Everyone who are asking me to talk about silk road start reading here.
Right now, China is in a tough spot with their overproduction problem. Here's a flow chart, from the start to now:
  1. Steel industries fighting to get into the market
  2. Too many steel suppliers leads to overproduction
  3. One steel suppliers try to eliminate competitions by driving prices down.
  4. Every steel supplier does the same.
  5. Prices eventually go so low, sales price is lower than production price.
  6. Every steel suppliers are now religions, praying their competitions will go bankrupt first so they can one day dominate the market.
  7. CCP cracks down on religion, prayers not answered. Steel suppliers now in the negative, have to borrow money from banks.
  8. Banking regulations stats they can only lend money to suppliers who are in business, i.e. have production and sales. Nobody can sack their workers and nobody can let their workers sit idle because it is also against the law to have idle workers.
  9. Death spiral: Lending leads to production, production leads to loss, loss leads to lending.
China is not as stupid as you think. They know how supply and demand works. They did not foresee the death spiral because there is no precedent. In normal cases supply-demand imbalance even out naturally by supply side shutting down due to lack of profit. But this is China. Steel makers are not investing their own money in the business, they are getting their source of funds from the government are. They do not care if their factories do not turn a profit. Afterall, it's not their own business.
"China is different." Damn right you are. China is the only country in the WTO whose majority of the population lacks independent thinking. The Chinese hierarchy system...it's a convenience. It tells you where to go, what to do, dulls your brain. The party wants us to make steel, I make steel, you make steel, everyone make steel! Everyone apply for a job for the steel making industry and everyone get subsidy from the government! Everyone drive down prices and everyone borrow money! Because the party says we need to make steel.
To fix this death spiral, China needs a larger demand, and if they cannot create demand among themselves, they have to create demand among foreign countries...and there is no way in hell the Americans and Europeans will accept Chinese quality steel.
So, turning their eye to Iran, Pakistan and other developing countries. Cue the one belt, one road protocol. Here's their pitch, dumbed down:
China: Do you want GDP? Do you want groooowth? Learn from us! Build bridges! We can sell you steel at half price! Not like greedy Europeans.
Really, that's it. Building infrastructure is one of the fastest way to bump your GDP, even if they end up useless later on. If China can sell their steel to those countries, they can effectively get rid of a lot of overproduction, maybe even evening out the supply-demand imbalances with the increase in demand!
Two obstacles here.
These developing countries have their own currency, and their other currency is in the form of foreign exchange, in USD. Foreign exchange risk still applies here. Secondly, because they are developing countries...often they don't have the money.
The solution: lend them money. With RMB. Through the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. This is going to kill 3 birds with one stone.
  1. Provide capital...provide a means to demand for things. The steel makers can now make a sale, easing oversupply problem finally.
  2. Weaken USD status, strengthen RMB status. Take loan out in RMB, repay with RMB...except you don't have RMB in your reserves. You take your USD from your foreign reserves, and exchange for RMB, because with closer ties with China supplying your every needs, there is no reason to be keeping those USDollars. Although AIIB says it's going to offer USD, Euro and RMB, you bet your ass that they are going to offer some very good conditions on taking loans out in RMB...the potential of further devaluation of RMB is already very attractive, I wonder what else they can add.
  3. Debt settlement. China can now use your USD to repay your debt (fun fact: AIIB lending terms are on a 3 year basis, so they will be collecting their USD in 2019----Guess when the majority of China's foreign debts are due? 2020. Their timing is just perfect).
  4. Positive cycle: Initial lending leads to sales of steel, sales of steel leads to infrastructure building, infrastructure building leads to more sales of other materials, which leads to more lending...the whole cycle leads to weaker USD status in these countries and strong RMB status.
Whew! That's a lot of research! Now that we got the AIIB out of the way, one belt is partially explained but to those who don't get it, high speed rail uses a lot of steel, and is considered infrastructure.
Now that we've got AIIB and one belt under the belt, the last that remains: one road. This is when I'm going into /conspiracy level shit talking and I'm sure I'll be generating a lot of downvotes, so I'll keep it skippy. Here's a list of problems are facing that can be solved with one road(sea silk road):
  1. Over production
  2. Economy focused along shorelines
  3. Dependency on natural resources from hostile foreign forces.
Here's how one road will help them solve these problems:
  1. Trade to solve overproduction, already mentioned above.
  2. Give China an excuse to exercise more controls on the sea, such as the entire South China Sea.
  3. This is the most important. Control of sea routes will allow China to prioritize their freight routes over other countries. While SCS is going to be free, it will be "free with Chinese characteristics". Freights from China are going to flood the SCS and take up a lot of queue space in sea routes shared with other countries, namely Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Phili, Indonesia, Taiwa, Vietnam, etc. If you have ever tried queuing with the Chinese, you know how this will end.
  4. Fuck yeah.
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